What actually makes a synth panel work

TrustedRouter reports an ablation study of its Synth multi-model research system using a five-model open-weights panel evaluated on 100 DRACO agentic research tasks, finding that ensemble performance depends primarily on panel diversity rather than any single component. With a relatively homogeneous open-model panel, changing judges and synthesizers had little effect, whereas synthesizer choice caused large score differences in a more varied frontier-model panel. Leave-one-out tests suggested only MiniMax M3 and DeepSeek V4 Pro materially contributed individually, but removing three apparently redundant members together reduced performance by 3.4 points, indicating that distributed redundancy protects against shared blind spots. Although DeepSeek V4 Pro and M3 were especially valuable, their advantage was not explained by unusually independent errors; task-level performance correlations were broadly similar across models. The study concludes that effective ensembles require sufficiently capable models with complementary, diffusely distributed error patterns, and says its code, task harness, panel configuration, and results are publicly available.

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