When Rising Decline Rates Signal an Identity Fraud Attack

Socure argues that a sudden increase in new-applicant declines may indicate successful detection of a large fraud attack rather than a deterioration in customer conversion, particularly when application volume rises while approved-user volume remains stable. It recommends monitoring approval volumes and fraud-score distributions instead of approval rates alone, since attacks may generate many high-risk applications and suppress acceptance percentages. In a cited case, a financial institution experienced a 20% acceptance-rate decline during an early-morning fraud campaign that repeatedly changed email addresses and phone numbers; Sigma Identity Fraud reportedly identified more than 80% of attempts at an acceptable false-positive rate, and revised decision rules raised capture to 93% with a 1% increase in reviews. The company attributes its detection capabilities to machine learning, broad identity analysis across personal and behavioral data, consortium feedback data, and adjustable controls using email, phone, and address risk and correlation scores, which it says can help institutions adapt quickly while continuing to approve legitimate applicants.

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