AI Arms Race: The First Scoreboard Is Live

As of March 5, 2026, the United States and Israel are engaged in an active conflict with Iran, marked by Operation Epic Fury, which began on February 28 and has led to significant military actions, including the death of Iran's Supreme Leader and numerous strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This conflict highlights the critical role of artificial intelligence (AI) in modern warfare, as AI systems have dramatically shortened the time needed to identify and engage targets, enabling the US and Israel to carry out nearly 900 strikes in just 12 hours. The US military has developed AI capabilities through initiatives like Project Maven and GenAI.mil, despite challenges such as Google's withdrawal from a key contract due to ethical concerns, which were later addressed by partnerships with companies like Palantir and OpenAI. Meanwhile, China is advancing its military AI capabilities through efficient models like DeepSeek, aiming to compensate for perceived shortcomings in its command structure. The global AI arms race is reshaping military strategies and operations, with AI proving to be a significant force multiplier, as demonstrated by recent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran. However, the reliance on a few American AI companies for frontier models introduces potential instability, as their policies can be influenced by political pressures, emphasizing the precariousness of the current US lead in military AI.

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