What is hypothesis-driven development?

Hypothesis-driven development is a method that focuses on validating hypotheses to maximize learning and navigate uncertainty in product development, contrasting with feature-driven and outcome-driven approaches that prioritize predictability and value generation, respectively. This approach emphasizes continuous learning, an MVP (minimum viable product) mindset, and data-driven decision-making by centering development efforts around testing assumptions and gathering insights. While it excels in environments with high ambiguity, such as early-stage products, and helps reduce uncertainty, it may not be suitable for long-term strategies that require robust product experience and focused direction. Challenges include a potential lack of product polish, unfocused long-term strategy, and an overemphasis on MVPs, which can limit the depth and quality of development. Therefore, while hypothesis-driven development is valuable for initial learning and clarity, it often needs to be supplemented or replaced by more outcome-focused or feature-driven approaches as a product matures and clarity increases.