It Can Only Goodhart Happen

The discussion around token usage in AI and productivity metrics, such as tokenmaxxing, highlights the challenges of quantifying and incentivizing developer productivity through simplistic measures. Drawing on Goodhart's and Campbell's laws, the text argues that relying on quantitative metrics can lead to distorted outcomes and suggests that productivity is a complex, systems-level issue rather than one that can be captured through individual scorekeeping. While tokenmaxxing, likened to the infinite monkey theorem, proposes generating vast amounts of output for potential innovation gains, it also risks creating inefficiencies and unmanageable outputs. The inherent difficulty in measuring productivity parallels challenges seen in previous attempts to quantify work, such as the use of story points. The text stresses the importance of maintaining fundamental team dynamics like psychological safety and robust CI/CD processes, while leveraging AI to enhance these systems rather than simply mandating its use. Ultimately, understanding team dynamics and the obstacles to productivity can provide more valuable insights than focusing on AI-driven outputs alone.