How researchers are using GitHub Innovation Graph data to estimate the impact of ChatGPT

The GitHub Innovation Graph has been launched to provide accessible longitudinal metrics on software development globally, particularly benefiting researchers, policymakers, and developers. Researchers Alexander Quispe and Rodrigo Grijalba are utilizing this data to study the impact of AI tools like ChatGPT on software development. Their findings indicate that ChatGPT has significantly boosted developer engagement and the velocity of software development, particularly in high-level languages like Python and JavaScript, though it has not notably increased the number of developers or projects. The researchers employed advanced causal inference methods, such as synthetic difference-in-differences, to analyze the data, highlighting the challenges and potential of AI in accelerating pre-existing development processes. Despite some limitations, such as potential VPN usage bypassing restrictions, the study suggests that AI-driven tools will become integral to future software engineering, urging policymakers to support their integration for economic growth. Both researchers emphasize the growing importance of AI tools in their work, underscoring the need for effective prompt engineering and recommending foundational learning in algorithms, causal inference, and machine learning for those entering the field.