Identifying Areas Most Likely to Suffer Recession Post Pandemic

The study aims to identify areas in Spain most likely to suffer recession post-pandemic by analyzing sociodemographic, economic, and employment factors. The researchers used datasets from Unica360 to build a risk index, which was calculated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The analysis revealed that areas with higher risks of economic recession are those within the M30 orbital motorway and in neighborhoods towards the south and south-west, particularly those with more hostelry, retail, and tourism activities. In contrast, areas with lower risks are located in the north and north-west, such as Aravaca and Chamartin, which have fewer office buildings, commercial properties, and tourist attractions. The study's findings provide insights into the characteristics of areas that may be affected by the upcoming economic recession, highlighting the importance of considering sociodemographic, economic, and employment factors when predicting economic downturns.