Estimating Bazel's Adoption

Bazel, a build and test tool, has not been instrumented with telemetry by its team, which limits the ability to gauge its market penetration and industry adoption. Despite suggestions to implement telemetry similar to that used by Angular CLI, the Bazel team decided against it, adhering to the philosophy that Bazel should function like a compiler without network engagement. As of the third quarter of 2022, it is estimated that approximately 600 companies use Bazel, with the potential to grow to about 3,750 companies once it achieves full market saturation. This projection is based on data from publicly disclosed Bazel users and private interactions with adopters by a consulting company, assuming both sources provide random samples of the total Bazel user population. The analysis considers the overlap of companies listed publicly and those known privately, using probability and linear algebra to estimate the total number of Bazel adopters. Currently, Bazel appears to be in the "Chasm" phase, transitioning from early adoption to early majority, suggesting it will require further effort for broader adoption.