Company
Date Published
Author
Craig Sexauer
Word count
1267
Language
English
Hacker News points
None

Summary

Online experimentation, particularly A/B testing, is often celebrated for its potential to produce significant improvements in product performance, yet in practice, the true value lies in preventing losses rather than achieving major wins. While legendary success stories of minor changes leading to substantial boosts in metrics capture attention, the reality is that most experiments fail to achieve their goals, and the majority of observed "wins" may be misleading due to factors like Twyman's Law, novelty effects, or poor evaluation criteria. It is crucial to maintain skepticism towards positive results and prioritize understanding the underlying causes of metric changes. Preventing negative outcomes is as important as pursuing positive ones, as demonstrated by Rec Room's experience of turning a potential 35% regression into a 10% improvement. The strategic focus should be on using experimentation to holistically assess all changes, identify and mitigate regressions using strong guardrail and ecosystem metrics, and celebrate the prevention of losses alongside the pursuit of wins. This approach not only requires robust experimental infrastructure but also a recalibration of how success is measured and celebrated in the context of product development.