Company
Date Published
Author
Aayush Bajaj
Word count
2171
Language
English
Hacker News points
None

Summary

Monte Carlo Simulations are a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models by simulating the probability of different outcomes when random variables are involved. Originating from the work of mathematician Stanislaw Ulam, Monte Carlo methods utilize random sampling to estimate statistical properties and have diverse applications across fields like business, finance, telecoms, meteorology, astronomy, and particle physics. The simulations are particularly valuable in machine learning for resampling techniques like the bootstrap method. The blog post explores practical applications, such as simulating the game of roulette to demonstrate concepts like variance and the law of large numbers, showing how casinos use these simulations to ensure profitability. The post also includes a hands-on guide with code examples for simulating fair, European, and American roulette, highlighting how the expected returns differ due to the structural variations in the games. The text emphasizes the importance of large sample sizes in obtaining accurate predictions and discusses the limitations of random sampling in achieving perfect accuracy.