Identifying and overcoming survivorship bias

Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when analysis focuses only on successful or surviving elements, ignoring those that failed, which can distort decision-making and perspectives. It is crucial to recognize and overcome this bias to make informed and balanced decisions, as illustrated by historical examples such as World War II aircraft analysis where only returning planes were examined, leading to flawed conclusions. In product management, survivorship bias can manifest by overemphasizing successful areas without acknowledging failures, potentially resulting in misguided strategies. To identify and avoid this bias, it is essential to critically evaluate data sets, ensure transparency in data selection, consider changes over time, and diversify data sources to include both successes and failures. Techniques such as random sampling, challenging assumptions, benchmarking against reality, and fostering open dialogue are recommended to mitigate survivorship bias, enabling more comprehensive and realistic product development and decision-making processes.